You have to make increasingly tough decisions in global macro. But you mostly get just a glut of ambiguous information or “provocative” opinion.
The problem is major failures are rarely caused by lack of information or opinion.
Instead, in almost every major crisis or business disaster it is the assumptions and warning signs that get overlooked. Intentions get misread. Senior decision-makers simply don’t see problems from their particular mindset, or adapt their views in light of new evidence. People resist changing their views until it is too late. It is even harder to see other people’s mindsets.
It’s frames, not information
In fact, evidence shows the major catastrophes arise from how people frame an issue, and the assumptions they make. People don’t explore a problem from different angles. They expect others will make the same choices they would. They misread others’ intentions and communications and potential reactions.
The worst problem of all is confirmation bias: decision-makers see what they want to see, or expect to see. They look for information which confirms their point of view. (See the Alucidate Blog for many examples.)
What can you do about it?
If you’re a highly skilled decision-maker, you get the hardest, most ambiguous, least forgiving problems. The buck stops with you. You skillfully handle what you can see. But you know it’s what you can’t easily see that can damage you the most.
Most models don’t help, because they encode or conceal assumptions. Most theoretical experts impose their own preconceptions rather than looking at your problem, and their track record is highly unreliable.
Look at Mindset and Differences
Instead, you need a systematic look at the differences in the way people are seeing and reacting to a situation, because that helps identify the critical assumptions and key evidence you need to test your view. You need something which actively looks for the major traps and misperceptions and illusions you must avoid.
That is what Alucidate does.
It’s not simply behavioral economics, looking for irrationality and biases. Instead, we look for blindspots, the things you can’t see from your relative position. A skilled driver checks his or her blindspots before accelerating into the fast lane and overtaking others. In the same way, you need to check for potential blindspots before making the most important decisions, or you risk being hit by something you never saw coming.
Value does not come from information or theory. It comes from better decisions. Alucidate helps you make better decisions by fixing misperception and finding the blind spots.
Read about what you get. Read more about blindspots.