Research on improving decisions says the most productive step you can take is to talk to someone independent and skilled outside your organization. So Alucidate is founded on interactive discussion with you and your team, on the phone and in person. That ensures maximum focus on your own needs and concerns, maximum relevance, and more valuable and timely insight. By finding the differences between your perspective and how policymakers and other decision-makers see the issue, you can avoid blindspots.
And because we’re small we can offer much more personal, timely, and tailored service.
We also send you periodic thorough Decision Map Reports on significant issues, which systematically look for evidence of major blindspots by looking in depth at two major things:
1. Relevant mindset at a point in time: Problem Definition, Timeline, Objectives, Capabilities & Alternatives, and Preconceptions.
2. How people change their mindset over time: Evidence, Testing and Adaptation.
These are the foundation for multiple timely and brief written Updates on how the situation is changing. We issue regular reports with commentary on other views and reactions.
Models and Checklists
We also develop simple linear models to assist decisions on major issues like Federal Reserve policy, given research that simple models are the most accurate way to combine evidence.
Through these discussions and reports you will
- see more opportunities than your competitors, as you will be more sensitive to evidence which disconfirms market expectations.
- amplify your insight and creativity through better testing of views, and deeper exposure to different perspectives.
- reduce your risk of major losses by better recognition of untested assumptions in decisions.
- gain more ability to predict interest rate and other macro policy changes, and answer “what-if” questions, by developing a stronger grasp of how other groups think and react.
- acquire keener perception of thresholds and triggers for policy action.
- enhance your ability to demonstrate stronger fiduciary controls and risk management because of a more systematic evaluation of assumptions, and better judgment and oversight of “black box” models.
Read about how it is backed by the most relevant experience.