As a drama it is extraordinary. Cameron had thought he was going to win the Brexit referendum by ten points, because his pollster told him so on the afternoon of the referendum. Seventeen hours later he was on the steps outside giving his resignation speech.
At around 3pm, Cameron’s team took a phone call which made them convinced that victory was in the bag.
Lord Cooper, a co-founder of the Populus polling company and the architect of the PM’s policy on gay marriage, called to say he thought the margin of victory for Remain would be 60/40. A few hours later, Populus published its final poll of the campaign – giving Remain a commanding ten-point lead.
The result, of course, was 52:48 against instead. It's like a Greek tragedy: hubris followed by perepeteia, a brutal turning of one thing into its opposite, all in the space of a few hours.